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Inflation or Deflation?

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty re: Emailed the creator of the 1929 vs 2007 stock decline comparison chart

Post  Shelby on Mon Jun 08, 2009 11:13 am

Shelby wrote:Subject: BEV Chart would track 1929 if you adjust for dollar

Your BEV chart shows current crisis diverging from 1929:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen060609.html

But if you adjust the blue line by the change in the value of the dollar since Oct 15, 2007 (current crisis start):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD

Then you would see blue and red lines must more closely tracking. This is because the dollar before 1933 was gold and did not have a rapidly changing value...

Inflation measures are too slow to capture the multi-month manipulations in the value of the dollar, which affect capital flows between asset classes and nations. I think you will find that the dollar forex index will capture much of the change in the performance of asset values as compared to when dollar was gold. I think you will find that by adjusting the blue line in your BEV chart by the percentage change in the forex, then your BEV chart will show a higher correlation to the 1929+ period.

> Hi Shelby
>
> It is hard to compare any financial series like the DJIA from beginning to
> end. Inflation over the decades distorts dollar values. I deflated the
> DJIA in Wk69 (06 Feb 2009) using CinC and CPI. That is the best I can do.
>
> I frequently note that the dollar is not what it once was, but chart it as
> Dow Jones publishes the data, or use a BEV chart.
>
> Mark

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty How bad is it? (we already have hyperinflation of P/E ratio!)

Post  Shelby on Sun Jun 14, 2009 3:48 am

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers061209.html

...A lot of folks have made a big deal about the US running a $1 trillion deficit this year. Well, if you included the net value of those unfunded Social Security and Medicare expenses we cleared a $1 trillion deficit in 2007, a $5 TRILLION deficit in 2008 and are on course to clear a $9 TRILLION deficit this year.

To give you an idea of how big a problem these deficits are, consider that the US government could tax its citizens 100% of their earnings and NOT have a balanced budget.

In light of these issues, the government's $787 billion stimulus package doesn't exactly breed confidence in an economic turnaround. Incomes have lagged inflation in this country for 30+ years. Creating a bunch of temporary positions related to construction and the like is NOT going to alter this in any significant way.

Moreover, most of the job growth in the last 10 years has come from Bubbles: two out of five jobs created between 2002 and 2007 came from the housing industry. The irony here, of course, is that the Stimulus Plan is merely following this trend, creating jobs from our latest (relatively unreported) Bubble: the bubble in government spending and employment...


...Ok, so where is the US economy REALLY at right now?

Year over year real employment, real industrial orders, real housing starts, and real retail sales are all posting their largest drops since the production shutdown following WWII. Put another way, the last time the US economy fell this hard this fast, we were intentionally shutting down the monster than was the US war machine in WWII.

This is no recession. We are already on our way to a Depression (a GDP contraction of 10%) possibly even another Great Depression...

I think this will reach a head in 2010, right about when the next phase of the crisis is getting worse:

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0611.html (interest rate derivatives failures much larger than the subprime derivatives mess)
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2009/0528.html (next phase of residential real estate loan failures)

And don't forget also commercial real estate (2nd wave of domino effect from subprime crash) is crashing this year.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/daughty061109.html

...The really eye-popping result is that with the S&P 500 selling at 940, this means that the index has an astonishing price-to-earnings ratio of 130! Hahaha! Insane!

If you are not laughing in total disbelief, then an instructive way of looking at a P/E ratio of 130 is that if the company pays you all of the money it earns for the next 130 years, you will break even! Hahaha! 130 years to break even! Hahaha! Now you know why the laughter!...

Folks that is sign that we are already in hyperinflation. The hyperinflation is being sucked away from consumer price (by the derivative and debt load) and into the stock market valuations (now we know where the criminals put the $12 trillion they stole). Also see this:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/economics-f4/stocks-vs-precious-metals-vs-bonds-vs-real-estate-t11-15.htm#1496

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Fed is lying about the growth in M1, should be 70% not 16%!!

Post  Shelby on Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:38 pm

http://www.kitco.com/ind/katz/jun152009.html

I have emailed John Williams at ShadowStats.com, to get his opinion about this.

If this is true, and if John spreads the word, we could be in for a major shift in attitude about coming hyperinflation. This could in turn lead to rapid shift in attitudes about gold vs. Tbonds. But is any one listening? Will be interesting to see if anything develops from this.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Re: Inflation or Deflation?

Post  silberruecken on Tue Jun 16, 2009 2:04 pm

thanks for this link, shelby. Please let us know what John Williams answers. Thank you.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Consumer debt increasing in Asia

Post  Shelby on Tue Jun 16, 2009 8:03 pm


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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Precious metals have never protected during long periods of inflation

Post  Shelby on Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:27 pm

See the "Silver: The Restless Metal, Roy Jastram (Wiley, 1981)" chart on this page:

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ash/2009/0617.html

Notice that when ever Commodity prices are rising (inflation), then silver & gold do not keep pace. But when ever they are falling (deflation), silver & gold actually gained in purchasing power.

Note this says nothing about short-term parabolic changes in gold & silver purchasing power due to monetary dislocations (e.g. hyperinflation).

FACT: the world can not move to a gold/silver monetary standard without MASSIVE deflation (there will some winners and some losers as mal-invested debt is retired). Gold/silver is the only monetary system that can retire debt.

So we can thus conclude that the world is going to resist gold/silver monetary system, because there is no place on earth right now that would not suffer massive DEFLATION trying to move to such a system. The BRIC nations are to suffer less from debt retirement, because they have less debt, but their current production depends so heavily on debt-based consumption from West. The BRICs are trying to transistion, but in the process are building debt in order to accelerate the transistion (from western consumption to domestic consumption). They are not building a deflation based economy on gold/silver monetary system (as USA did in 1800s), rather a new domestically based consumer debt bubble, because they are unwilling to endure the initial deflation from giving up the consumer based debt consumption.

However, the fledgling consumer debt bubble in BRICs could in theory run for a long time, because it is not yet saturated.

However, can BRICs get to a point SOON ENOUGH where the saturated Western consumption is such a small % of their economy, that they can discard it without social disintegration?? In other words, the BRICs are now carrying the western debt on their backs (because the west refuses to allow gold & silver and retire debt).

Because if they can't get there soon enough, then they are going to see vicious commodity inflation and social disintegration from that. The western is accelerating the rate of non-productivity (mal-investment, dependence on BRICs to eat) as govt takes on more debt (and stifling regulations) in order to prevent retirement of existing debt.

The bottom line is that the western debt has to be retired. The longer the BRICs try to have "both worlds", the more debt builds globally. Their leaders know this, but their hands are tied, because social disintegration would occur if decoupled now.

How is this going to end? War.

That is the only way it can end, because a lot of people need to be losers in order to reset this failed system. Gold will be at premium at some point due to chaos. Silver will be at premiums during reflation efforts, possibly even blowoff peaks, but I have hard time visualizing how people are going to resort to silver as money in this chaos. You would think they would if nothing else, but the govt may become very heavy-handed during this time. Silver may fetch an industrial premium in war, but again the govt's fascism stands as a risk. Why will govts be fascist? Because there is no competing paradigm for this chaos. You see we are headed for abject failure, because no one wants to lose right now. No one wants to retire their bad debt and walk away humiliated and broke. Everybody wants their MTV! Even in the BRICs. Me, me, me, no God. (I wrote that same sentence 2 years ago in Hommel forum).

Where does the govt get this power during chaos? Because it can control access to food. It can pit one group of masses against the other, using philosophical propaganda (a la Hilter, Stalin, etc), but the real underlying driving force is to eat.

One could try to argue that silver is so depleted now, that it will simply be forced to very high value, and then take on the attributes of Gold, being equally transportable (per unit value), etc.. However, if it is the case that silver is so depleted (and I have my doubts as supposedly 18 Boz in private silverware/jewelry), then all the more the market will be so small that it will not be able to serve as money on a wide scale, and all the more reason for the govt to intervene and declare silver a strategic industrial metal. Silver may make someone a fortune, but the risk is consumerately higher as well. However, what if people holding 18 Boz decide to spontaneously start using it as money during chaos? But you see in order for that to happen, the whole dollar charade has to crash down, people have to allow industries to build about silver use as money etc.. Silver can not become money, until gold does first (just as happened in Dark Ages after Rome fall, gold was first buried, then silver became money when the world reached rock bottom). First we have to have the massive deflation. Pretcher's call for silver bottom in 2012 does not seem completely ludicrous:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/precious-metals-f6/silver-as-an-investment-t33-75.htm#1500

But first the world is going to try to reflate out of this mess. So we could see a very high blowoff peak in silver ($50+) before that final capitulation deflation. And that is how I read the repeating pattern on Pretcher's page 32 chart.

And does the world some how make it past 2012 before succumbing to gold retiring the global debt? Can BRICs race fast enough for longer? The vicious commodity inflation is what is going to bring the whole house of cards down. Given the 2007 collapse from 2002 reflation, and give the accelerated global scale now, a 2012 chaotic implosion from the 2008 reflation does not seem out-of-line... and I think the chaos will be much worse than 2007.

People really do prefer war over honest weights & measures:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/biblical-f3/how-to-come-out-of-the-great-harlot-t97.htm#1532

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty re: Precious metals have never protected during long periods of inflation

Post  Shelby on Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:28 pm

> Projectsions beyond a few months are impossible. I think you accept the
> literal truth of the bible and the apocalypse, and so this taints your
> projections.
> You require that an ultimate worldwide collapse must occur, so you devote
> great mental energy to working that into the scenarios you come up with.
>
> I don't believe in god or the literal truth ofthe bible.


Any influence on me from Bible does not require a end of Revelations now. I actually tend to think it is at least 30 years from now. I am not basing my logic about the inability of BRICs to decouple on the need for an apocalypse, because I don't think this is the final apocalypse coming. I think it will be a very rough time, that eventually transistions us to a new world order, and time of relative peace and prosperity, but I don't think we will get there in a few years and without great global dislocations first. My logic follows...


> I don't believe a
> worldwide
> collapse will occur, or the apocalypse. I believe the USA will suffer
> mostly
> alone. The rest of the world will shrug off the USA empire an will be
> relatively
> smiling.



The USA was not able to shrug off Europe's similar collapse in from early
1900s through 1920s. Actually the USA did shrug it off before 1913, but
not after. Why? What happened in 1913?

There is no place on Earth now, that hasn't been invaded by the fiat
banker poison.

If developing world walks away from the dollar, they will lose a huge
chunk of their economy and have a massive depression. If they continue
forward to use stimulus to create a runaway economy, they will be copying
what USA did in 1920s.



>
> The USA can't get past the fact that it has to issue some 4+ trillion in
> US
> treasuries this year, and there are no buyers.


Yes but the dollar is the world's problem, not just the nation of USA in
isolation. Globalization and fiat pervasiveness have made that so.



> 2 trillion is from Obama's
> budget
> deficit, and 2.5 trillion is from rolling over US treasuries already
> outstanding that
> are coming due. This staggering amount of debt will not be bought except
> by
> monetization by the Fed. Taxation won't cut it. So the options are print
> it
> or
> cut back on the empire. I hope for printing and hyperinflation and the
> utter
> collapse of the US government.


But you don't get hyperinflation if this money is merely helping people
stay afloat (pay existing debt loads), and the debt loads increase on the
govt. Rather this will lead to global chronic high levels of inflation.
Inflation robs the poor and middle class, and enrichs the wealthy. This
is not a prescription for developing nations to decouple and get more
wealthy. It is a presciption for draining them like a parasite.



> But I expect instead the US government will
> drastically scale back its expenditures until it can support itself.


Why? There is no popular support for that. The rich want inflation.
Buffet is betting on inflation.


>
> As regards your belief fiat currencies are not going away, I expect what
> will
> emerge are sovereign nations trading with each other, settling acounts
> with
> gold.


How do you get from here to there politically? You first crash global
trade with this. I think the BRICs are hoping some kind of subtle
transistion to this, but ignite any fire under gold and this can't be
subtle. Then we will get war. That is why I said, this only gets
resolved by war, at the point where enough people break away from the fist
system to cause gold to go ballastic.

The host (world) is not going to kill the cancer (dollar fiat) without
killing itself. The cancer is too widespread.



> Internal to each country it is their business how they handle their
> currency. Some will be fiat not backed by anything, some will be backed by
> gold. I don't expect a replacement world reserve currency to arise that is
> equivalent to the dollar.


This will have to come out of the ashes of war, as Bretton Woods did.

I will read your logic on reply and probably leave at that. Maybe you can
sway me with some logic. Thanks and hope our exchange helps both of our
throught processes.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Repeat of 2002 - 2007 reflation, until the world breaks?

Post  Shelby on Sat Jun 20, 2009 3:04 am

I wrote the following as rebuttal to someone arguing that BRICs will walk away from dollar like flicking a fly off their shoulder:

Shelby wrote:The USA debt can never be made whole (for rest of world) without war,
because it will mean enslavement of the USA people. You have described
one possible scenario towards war.

You don't seem to understand mainstream Asia at all. There is no margin
to write any thing off. People here survive on crap food, because they
want to keep their food budget below $1 per day. Factories\businesses
operate at razor thin profit margins.

You seem to forget that USA + UK + Spain + other overly indebted European
nations are a very significant portion of the global economy. You suck
that out, then Asian govts get overthrown, you will have disintegration
and chaos.

The hyperinflation of the dollar will continue to exported to BRICs
countries. 2007 - 2012 will be a repeat of 2002 - 2007, except more
extreme and more volatility. This will go on until the world economy
breaks into war.

Let's talk later after we see what happens.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Can developing world decouple from dollar fiat?

Post  Shelby on Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:15 am

I agree the developing world could decouple, if they simply would embrace real money and their strong inherent capital, e.g. humble productive lifestyles, hard work, etc (and lack of accumulated debt). But the problem is that the fiat credit hungry middle class is driving the BRICs' aspirations (and domestic consumption that can replace the slumping exports, which employ the masses at < $5 per day). That is reason I come to the conclusions that I stated in the immediately prior posts.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Mis-allocation of capital

Post  Shelby on Mon Jun 22, 2009 12:25 pm


Shelby
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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Deflation of western debt is unavoidable

Post  Shelby on Tue Jun 23, 2009 4:53 am

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/bloom/2009/0622.html

The only question now is how the pain (transfer of wealth) is spread around.

The Chinese economy is not developed enough to sustain a consumer debt bubble that could drag the rest of the world up with it. There are only 300 million newly middle class, with 700+ million peasants that still need to be dragged up by that middle class. If you suddenly give peasants unlimited credit, you will have massive misallocation of capital and quick implosion to follow. Debt bubbles can't be created until the fruit tree is mature.

The lowest valued sections of the developing world economies can continue to grow, but these do not have enough value to offset the debt implosion of the high valued dollar economy:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090621/bs_afp/financeeconomychinacommodities_20090621034309

I wrote about this 3 years ago:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Inflating%20Deflation.html

Shelby wrote:...First world economies face an unavoidable dilemma, regardless whether globalization is switched on or off, either sacrifice now with decades of retirement demographic deflation (globalization off), or sacrifice later by inflating the deflation of globalization for temporary illusionary "wealth", which will end in a hyper-catastrophic global collapse Greater depression...

What is really happening now, is the controllers of debt and fiat, are using volatility between waves of reflation against the inevitable debt deflation, to consolidate (transfer) wealth to them. Inflation or deflation is not the correct question, as we will have both fighting each other.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Re: Inflation or Deflation?

Post  Shelby on Tue Jun 23, 2009 11:47 pm

Nature doesn't know where the border is that deliniates "China".

Economics is governed by billions of actors.

Indeed the current global system is trying to become more socialist, where the failure of some is shared by all. However, wealthy individual actors will try to act in their best interest. China is not acting in the best interests of those wealthy independent actors. Those actors will move their capital away from failure oriented attempts to lift all boats (as China and all the nations are currently doing with it's stimulus programs).

There is will be a huge collapse when all this misallocated capital results in even more overcapacity in the wrong production. China should have stopped with it's export bubble, and adopted gold, and let actors be free to drive future growth. Instead it is trying to force all boats up, making their overcapacity bubble worse.

Nature is a not universal consistency of results. Man will try in vain.


> I make the point that the accumulation
> of US treasuries and dollars represents information on relative wealth,
> and that that information is redundant provided parties hoarding US
> treasuries and dollars are properly diversified. Meaning suppose
> china holds 5% of all outstanding US treasuries on the planet. But at
> the same time suppose they hold 5% of the gold, 5% of the Euros, 5%
> of the Canadian dollars, 5% of the australian dollars, etc. Then if the
> dollars suddenly become worthless, they suffer no impact whatsoever.
> Because everyone else holding dollars ALSO loses the meaning of those
> dollars.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Re: Inflation or Deflation?

Post  Shelby on Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:18 am

Shelby wrote:http://www.kitco.com/ind/katz/jun152009.html

I have emailed John Williams at ShadowStats.com, to get his opinion about this.

If this is true, and if John spreads the word, we could be in for a major shift in attitude about coming hyperinflation. This could in turn lead to rapid shift in attitudes about gold vs. Tbonds. But is any one listening? Will be interesting to see if anything develops from this.

silberruecken wrote:thanks for this link, shelby. Please let us know what John Williams answers. Thank you.

Thanks so much John for the clarification.

> Shelby,
>
> Thanks for the note.
>
> Sweeps were around long before the excess reserves problem. It was my
> understanding that they sweeps into overnight institutional money funds,
> which is a component of M3. Whether counted as time deposits or
> otherwise, they are included in M3, which, as the broadest measure also
> would be remains best leading indicator to inflation. The flow-through
> from the monetary base to the broad money supply still is in the works.
>
> Best regards,
>
> John


Shelby wrote:Nature doesn't know where the border is that deliniates "China".

Economics is governed by billions of actors.

Indeed the current global system is trying to become more socialist, where the failure of some is shared by all. However, wealthy individual actors will try to act in their best interest. China is not acting in the best interests of those wealthy independent actors. Those actors will move their capital away from failure oriented attempts to lift all boats (as China and all the nations are currently doing with it's stimulus programs).

There is will be a huge collapse when all this misallocated capital results in even more overcapacity in the wrong production. China should have stopped with it's export bubble, and adopted gold, and let actors be free to drive future growth. Instead it is trying to force all boats up, making their overcapacity bubble worse.

Nature is a not universal consistency of results. Man will try in vain...

Jason explains how men try in vain to prop up a world-wide paper bubble:

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/people.html

The Chinese middle class exists because of the western paper bubble and theft from their own peasants via the Yuan peg. Some people think the West was the only party complicit in the paper theft (misallocation) paradigm. It is much more interwinded than that-- that is why it is called "globalism". The whole point of TPTB's push to globalization, was to make sure the whole world will be involved in this massive paper bubble blowoff.

But silver becomes money when the world is an utter mess. I think money be the least of your worries in that case. As Jason admits, there may be no food to buy. The point is that just having silver, doesn't guarantee you can use it or keep it from getting stolen or confiscated at some checkpoint, or what ever...

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Continued private debate about decoupling of China

Post  Shelby on Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:26 am

Very terse answers. You can read these. You have China totally wrong.

> Shelby,
>
> I read a bit of your points, just a hint, mind you.
>
> First of all the mindset of the US and perhaps a lot of europe is,
> "Gimme gimme gimme!" what with a majority wanting free health
> care as a right, high minimum wages, tax the rich, populist mentality,
> government should do all for the people, etc.

Agreed.

>
> Meanwhile the developing world has a completely different mindset.
> They expect nothing from the government other than to be left alone.

They expect everything from the govt here in Philippines, both on a local level where people expect free place to live, free roads, free handouts at election time, etc. And all big business is done in cooperation with govt, e.g. someone bribes someone in govt to build a road before the new mall gets built.

Health care is not socialized yet. And there is some privatization of former nationalized sectors.

Taxes are not that low. Here in Philippines there is a 12% VAT, on top an income and SS tax on anyone who earns enough worthy to tax.

The poor pay both 12% tax and a huge inflation tax. You forget that China has been running about 10% just on the inflation tax, as they print Yuan to keep dollar strong to keep the exports going...and keep the peasants poor (keep them poor while taxing them with inflation).


> Taxes are small and people are on their own. No benefits to speak of.
> Do you honestly think Chinese citizens expect their government to take
> care of them? I don't.


Chinese do expect and are taken care of by the govt. The govt even tells them how many kids they can have, where they can live, what they can say in public, etc..


>
> Stimulus packages can work, provided the money is invested wisely.

The public sector is NEVER, NEVER as wise as the private sector.

NEVER!!!


> In the US the money is invested just precisely as badly as it can be.
> They are taxing successful companies to prop up failing, incompetent
> companies. Incompetence and corruption are being rewarded. They
> believe in Keynesian economics! They think spending is what leads to
> economic prosperity. So by hook or by crook, they're going to spend!
> Do you know they're increasing unemployment checks, and they're
> constantly extending benefits? That's to boost consumption. All those
> unemployed people collecting a paycheck, they've got to spend it somehow.
> But they produce nothing! Nothing whatsoever. Consumption is being
> subsidized, but no money is going into production or in creation of new
> wealth, as in funding innovative startups.


Agreed!


>
> Contrast that to China where they're investing in infrastructure. They're
> investing in long term projects to line up resource supplies from around
> the world.


Ah this is just as bad as what USA is doing. Do you not understand why?

I would to show you a bunch of nice new bridges in Philippines that they built with the stimulus here. The problem is that they are being used as rice dryers, because the private sector was not yet ready to utilize those expensive bridges for consumerately valued production.

China is building a infrastructure that fits the current debt based consumption world. Their infrastructure is also politically directed to some extent (to keep riots from getting worse).

They will end up with a lot of useless heaps of disentropy. Picture in your mind all those 100s of useless tankers parked in the water off major ports of Asia during 2008 downturn.



> They're using US treasuries as collateral to purchase
> resources.
> This tightens a noose around the neck of the US -- it's pure genius.


It is a fool's folly.


> If
> the
> US tries to play games and manipulate commodity/resource prices down,
> that would trigger margin calls on the US treasuries China has placed as
> collateral.


I told you, the only way this ends is war.


> So US cuts its own throat when those treasuries hit the
> market!
> China isn't actually selling the treasuries, they're getting loans to buy
> real
> stuff and using the treasuries as collateral. Genius!


War is genuis? China is in a big hole they dug, and they cant get out.

>
> Shelby you are crippled because you believe, on faith, in a global
> collapse
> of biblical proportions.


Crippled?

I already told you the Bible is not entering into my logic at all. I don't know why you continue to accuse me. Focus on the logic, nevermind the Bible.


> That taints all your thinking. You skew
> everything
> such that such an outcome will occur. It's ridiculous. The world will go
> on.
> Life will go on. There is no god. The bible is a work of fiction.
> Predictions
> of armegeddon are pure fantasy. There will be no global economic collapse.


There wasn't in 1930 - 1944 either? The USA was not as strong as China then?


> The US empire is just in the process of collapsing.

Just as the British empire did in 1900s.


> No big deal. Life will
> be
> different, but life will go on. I expect things to be a lot better.

Life does go on. "better" has to be defined. I think most of the change you will see, is to see all that you hate about USA spread to Asia. I see it changing here. I see the USA attitude is becoming more and more prevalent in Asia. Selfishness. Self-centered. Dependence. Etc. It is all growing here.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Hyperinflation Nation...

Post  dz20854 on Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:07 am


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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Hard numbers against decoupling

Post  Shelby on Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:08 am

Several months ago, when I saw the massive surge in road building due to govt stimulus, I got fooled into thinking Asia was decoupling. Now after watching them rip up good roads, only to make them perfectly new cemented (something I never seen done in Philippines before, they always patch them up instead), I realized there was mis-allocation of capital. Now some hard data:

http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/columns/view/20090629-212899/China-no-longer-learning-East-Asian-lessons

...Most Western commentators focus on the spectacular success of China’s export sector and the emergence of China as the world’s factory. But the greater contributor to Chinese growth is actually domestically funded fixed-investment, which constituted over 50 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and over 40 percent of growth in 2008. China is way off the charts in this regard. Taiwan, for example, which had an unparalleled growth rate of 8 percent each year over 50 years, never had capital investment spending of more than 30 percent of GDP.

But it is not just the high reliance on fixed-investment that is striking. It is where the capital goes that is all important. China is unusual in that bank loans—drawn from the deposits of its citizens funneled into state-controlled banks—constitute around 80 percent of all investment activity in the country. Even though state-controlled enterprises produce between one quarter and one-third of all output in the country, they receive over 75 percent of the country’s capital, and the figure is rising. The Chinese state sector owns almost two-thirds of all fixed assets in the country. This is the reverse of what occurred in South Korea (as well as in Japan and Taiwan) where the private sector received over three quarters of all capital during the 1960s and 1970s.

Another case in point: a close examination of the shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that only around 50 of the approximately 1,300 companies are genuinely private. Between 1990 and 2003, less than 7 percent of the initial public offerings on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges were from private-sector companies. The Chinese state owns about 50 percent of all the shares of listed companies. When state-controlled entities are included in the calculation, it is likely to be around 70-80 percent of all listed shares.

The massive bias toward the state sector would be acceptable if the 120,000 state-controlled enterprises could learn to innovate and adapt. Unfortunately, except for a handful of centrally managed state-controlled enterprises, this is not the case.

To put the situation in perspective, China’s overall use of capital is twice as inefficient as India’s. World Bank findings indicated that about one-third of recent investments made by the state-controlled sector generated zero or negative returns...

...Despite China’s impressive GDP growth, about 400 million of its people have seen their net incomes stagnate or decline over the past decade. The income of the poorest 10 percent has been declining by 2.4 percent each year since the beginning of this century. Since 2000, absolute poverty has actually increased as has illiteracy.

Not surprisingly then that China’s Gini coefficient, a measurement of income inequality, rose from around 0.25 in the 1980s to around 0.38 in the 1990s. It is now around 0.5, the highest in Asia. In contrast, the Gini coefficients of South Korea and Taiwan from the 1960s to the 1990s hovered around 0.34 and 0.29 even as the economies of these countries were growing rapidly...

http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20090628-212855/Exports-to-Japan-down-36

...Philippine exports to Japan, its second biggest market, ... falling by 36.4 percent...

http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/letterstotheeditor/view/20090629-212901/Whos-to-blame-for-weak-economy

...manufacturing and trade, which contracted by 6.6 percent and 7.3 percent respectively. Exports sank 18.2 percent, while imports declined 19.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. Agriculture also slid to just 2.1 percent and the services sector showed no growth...

I read else where that FDI (foreign direct investment) is down 83% in Philippines, even remittances from overseas workers shrank from double to single digit % growth. And the following confirms what I have noticed which is an increase in number of people doing maid and street vendor (almost begging) work:

http://business.inquirer.net/money/columns/view/20090628-212866/Needless-debate-on-recession

...The aggregate numbers may look good, but a closer look at the jobs data reveals that the news isn’t all that positive. Of the total new jobs as of the first quarter, the largest groups were in agriculture (408,000 new jobs), wholesale and retail trade (346,000 jobs) and private household employment (139,000 jobs). By worker category, self-employed workers accounted for 609,000 of the new jobs, while unpaid family labor increased by close to 400,000. One can surmise from these data that the new “trade” jobs were probably mostly in the informal sector (i.e., self-employed vendors), while the new agriculture jobs are mainly unpaid family labor...

http://business.inquirer.net/money/topstories/view/20090628-212857/Govt-weighs-options-to-cover-big-deficit

...But officials were forced to increase the deficit ceiling to P250 billion after estimates showed that tax collections could fall short of target. This was the fourth revision from the original budget deficit target of P40 billion...

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Re: Inflation or Deflation?

Post  jack on Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:34 pm

In the U.S., if the economy suffers a massive further contraction and, we end up with an hyperinflationary monetary event, what happens to housing prices???

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty What happens to housing prices?

Post  Guest on Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:47 pm

Jack, I believe the answer you are seeking is in the value of the dollar and weather it will have the same purchasing power in the "Future".
Housing value, not prices, will decline and as the dollar falls of a cliff so will the power of the dollar to purchase. The price will increasing move higher as the dollar loses value but the value of the house will decrees because of supply and demand.
I see it this way, 2$ today = 1$ tomorrow (hyperinflation), a house worth 1$ today will be worth .50$ tomorrow (Contraction). Supply is getting higher and demand is slowing down.

If you wanted to buy a home today and make a quick turnover Go For It but do it quickly because tomorrow you're money will be worth less. To me this is playing with fire right now considering what is taking place in the US with California and now talk of NY defaulting and the Gov saying no to help them because the gov doesn't need to take over the government they want to take over the privet entities.

Think of what Alan Greenspan said, "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value."
So with hyperinflation knocking at the door, well... No home is a safe store of value.

jack wrote:In the U.S., if the economy suffers a massive further contraction and, we end up with an hyperinflationary monetary event, what happens to housing prices???

Answer! Lower in the city and higher in the country in the short term, 3 to 6 months. Long term the value of a home will be the last thing on your mind.

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." Lord John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946), renowned British economist."

I would like to change the above to read "and does it in a manner which only one man in a million is able to diagnose." and these people are screeeming at the city gates that we are headed into hyper-drive and one of them is Shelby screeeming in this forum.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Re: Inflation or Deflation?

Post  jack on Tue Jun 30, 2009 12:36 am

thank you Rob for your response.

I am trying to decide if i should sell my house and get rid of the mortgage to buy in at deppressed levels in a few years. Or, hold the mortgage and pay it with inflated currency later.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Pay my home off

Post  Guest on Tue Jun 30, 2009 4:23 am

Hi Jack,
Are you really looking to sell you're home? I know I would hate to sell mine. But, I look to the Lord in everything and He has guided me in a direction that is ... Peaceful.
Look,I have a home that is 2/3 paid off I don't have a job and I owe back taxes. I have every reason in the book to sell my home but I won't. Why? Because He has a much better plan for me: )us). Homes in the area I live sell on the same day they go up for sale but that can change in a heartbeat. I know that. He has never guided me in the wrong direction. Never!

When I look at what you are saying: "I am trying to decide if i should sell my house and get rid of the mortgage to buy in at deppressed levels in a few years."
When I read this the only thing that comes to mind is Buy low, Sell high. If you sell you're house now you still need to pay for lodging right? And for how many years? This money can be put on the mortgage instead of giving it to the landlord. Are you selling the house "High" or is the market depressed to near bottom were you are? If the market is a buyers market in your neighborhood then you know it's not time to sell.


Next; "Or, hold the mortgage and pay it with inflated currency later."
I truly believe that you should "hold" and pay off you're mortgage with the silver investments later. You will have a much better outcome. This is what the Lord has shown me, take what savings I have and invest into silver mine in Canada. And this is what I have done. When inflation goes up, my dollars will be worth less but because silver is going to increase in value so will the number of dollars invested. I would never be able to pay off my mortgage with just having money in the bank or in savings. We need to be invested in hard assets like gold or silver. This will off set inflation in the short to mid term. After that God has guided me in a completely different area.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Housing's Still Overvalued & Silver's Still Cheap

Post  Guest on Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:46 am

hey Jack... Did you read JH's email on "Housing's Still Overvalued & Silver's Still Cheap"?

J.H. "If we are fortunate, housing prices will drop 50-75% in 4-8 years, and it will be over quickly. That is unlikely, and would require the election of somebody like Ron Paul as President."

I think Jason failed to mention his home is not for sale because he has no mortgage. If you have a mortgage and you foresee the value of your house heading below what you owe on your mortgage, then you should want to sell especially if what Jason is saying about housing dropping 50% to 70% in 4-8 years. But and I say BUT, if you look at what is going in the world today and you have done your homework you will see that silver (and gold) is nearing its end of being suppressed. The TPTB will not have enough money to continue holding down the the markets much longer. The time is at hand! Be prepared! Because YOU are the head of the household and it is your job to steer you're family in the right direction. Make wise your dissensions and keep focus on your goal.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty re: Housing's Still Overvalued & Silver's Still Cheap

Post  Shelby on Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:31 am

It depends on your situation and plans.

You have to work out the numbers in your case. I don't think TPTB will allow you to win in hyperinflation. If you can get out of house in the black, and if you alternative living place (e.g. Philippines) will cost less than your mortgage, then I would sell. I would have sold in 2006, which is what I was screaming at everyone to do.

Otherwise, if you can take out a larger loan on your equity and basically live in your house for free by planning to walk away from the mortgage at some point and let your credit go up in smoke, then use the capital to invest wisely, then I would consider that. But you really have to be a wise investor and you need to be willing to walk away from USA and credit in future.

But for many people, they have no better option than to go down with the Titanic. They can't extract themselves and their family.

Note I didn't describe all the possible scenarios (i.e. those with no mortgage, etc). As I say, it depends on your situation and plans.

I agree with most of this:

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/housing.html


Last edited by Shelby on Thu Jul 02, 2009 7:08 am; edited 2 times in total

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty Future of the world

Post  Shelby on Thu Jul 02, 2009 6:35 am

Thanks for sharing your logic. I will reply interleaved to give my reaction to your logic in parts...

> Shelby,
>
> I was thinking of this back and forth exchange with you this morning. I want
> to try a
> different tactic.
>
> I believe I take it on faith that the US empire's days are numbered.


Agreed, but remember didn't Rome hold on for 100s of years beyond it's peak?

When would you say England's empire peaked? We could say it finally collapsed in early 1900s?

Then again, the USA fiat/derivatives bubble is probably
orders-of-magnitude more extreme and faster, due to the innovations of IT.


> Collapse within
> 1 year would be ideal.


This would be the scenario where the world runs to gold as money (billion of independent, untraceble actors in the economy), trade is fairly revalued (which would wreck havok on China's internal order and power structure), which is what everyone is avoiding.


> Within 5 years would be pretty bad.


This seems more likely, with chaos asserting itself forcefully to break up the existing order, due to the resistance of China and all the power players to allow entropy (freedom of billions of independent actors) to proceed.


> Within 30 years
> would
> be intolerable.


If the power players can hold the current order to that extreme, the blowback is going to be almost unimagineably violent (discontinuous reversion function).



> I mean, so bad that I don't know if I could go on living.
> I
> don't
> believe there is any place better on earth to run to, as the original americans did to
> escape europe. Earth is all used up.


I agree in terms of a new nation-state (a new socialistic attempt at better order), but the individual still has many places to run to. Actually Jesus mentions this in Matthew, he says the true believers will not have run through every city before he returns.

The Bible teaches the true believers to come out of the Great Harlot system.

I think where we end up is precisely as predicted in Revelations, where the only salvation is an individual one with God. In Matthew 6:5, Jesus explains we should not pray in church like "babbling pagans", but rather secretly in our room. You can ignore my references to Bible, as I am only noting how it coincides with our logic. I am not letting it lead my logic.


> I see the US empire as a giant gun,
> and
> at
> least inside the US the gun is pointed away. The US quality of life is sustained on
> the backs of the rest of the world. Do I want to raise a family in the "rest
> of the world"
> where people are held down by corrupt governments bought off by the US?


I do not believe that if you take away that imbalanced paradigm, that you will suddenly have a new more just(ice) order. The only way you get individual freedom, is to avoid the concentrations of power that come from socialistic order (government). The Bible also speaks about this where it is said that we should not seek to have a man-made government (earthly King), but if we want one he will take everything from us and enslave us.

You see the current gun is advantageous to the people at the top in both USA and in "rest of world". You take away that order, those people will scramble to find a new order that maintains their power. The reason they got that power in the first place, will still exist, which is human nature to use debt (an individual enslavement action, with collective enslavement results), and to take from the group and redistribute it (government, or group enslavement action).





>
> I believe people turn to religion as a defense mechanism to get through a miserable
> life.


Is life that miserable? The Great Harlot has very little effect on my daily life, when I choose to go outside of it's tentacles.

I think most people turn to the easiest things to numb their mind (like TV, overeating, etc), but there are still places to go to at one with nature and outside the monotony of Great Harlot system.


> I don't have that option. I can't believe in god or an afterlife. So I
> have to find
> some other belief to sustain me.


How about what I wrote above? Could the diversity of nature (non-monotony of Great Harlot, i.e. man-made, system) be an inspiration? It is for me. For example, I most often feel at ease and interested in places where people are not all programmed by TV.


> I think the knowledge that the corruption
> will end
> shortly allows me to go on day to day.


I would prefer to suggest or offer the you not rely on a man-made
socialistic result to save you (give you inspiration), and rather on your own individual (maybe include your family and close friends) relationship with the diversity of nature. I think that is what Jesus is referring to (nature is God), but if you prefer different semantics to coincide more with a purely "scientific view" (non-cartoon characters, as you view "God", "Jesus", "John the Babtist", etc), perhaps it is just a different road to a similar paradigm of coming out of the man-made system?

>
> When you say it won't end for another 30 years, I have to reject that immediately.


Well I am sure the man-made results won't end for another 30 years. Can the nation-state system achieve an order that makes you feel justice has been served? It is interesting to me that TPTB seem to be aware of the need to present an image in the media of injustice and how their global order will return justice to mankind by eliminating the corrupt
nation-state paradigm (the imbalanced one with the big gun you describe). But this apparent (media illusion) new justice will be the lie of the anti-christ. This will be the one that will have zombies walking to take the glorious 666 enslavement. People will not even realize.

But you know from science that increasing concentration of power and order can never be justice or freedom. So I do hope you find a semantics that allows you to avoid the media programming and come out of the Great Harlot.

I say that with love of you and men.


> Because I see that as business as usual for the rest of my life, no end in sight.


You are yearning for the great release of energy from the chaos of diversity of nature. You see how much progress is being impeded by the current man-made paradigm of governance (resource allocation and
programming of minds via media, i.e. the Great Harlot system in my semantics).

You are yearning for the return of Jesus after the masses have destroyed themselves, but you have a different semantics.

But I think we can go directly to that place now. We are given the means.
We can work towards coming out that system. Is that totally impractical? Well it seems a lot depends on how much baggage we require to hang on to
no? I am living example of trying to figure out if I can come out of it. It is a constant struggle for me to figure out if I can release all this baggage that I have accumulated since birth.

Remember when Jesus's mother and brother came to visit him, he said "all you masses are my brother and mother". The model of Jesus (whether he was real or not in your view), is one of no earthly baggage.


>
> I don't know what the future holds. I can't! How can anyone? I at least have
> some
> insight as to what biases I have.
>
> Can you share what biases you have? I keep asserting that you want the outcome
> to be "total worldwide collapse in 30 years". Is this accurate?


No. Great psychological profile question (direct to key point).

My bias is I want to be free and fulfilled. I have stated this before as wanting to know "the truth", or wanting to understand my role in this universe.

My bias in terms of outcomes is I do not want to see the progress of the "new world order" to outpace my learning rate. Right now I still need resources (baggage), because I am still learning how and whether I can come out of this Great Harlot (new world order) that is developing.

My bias is I do not expect the new world order to be justice (although it may appear to be, maybe as compared to coming after some tumultuous period), but rather I think it will be the zombie system of the USA catching up with where I am, removing my current safe haven. I will have had to move on before then. So 1 year would be way too fast. I would not be able to learn and adjust that fast. I have still too much baggage to sort out.

So is my bias fear or is it a desire to be free of a system?


>
> In the midst of all this, nagging in the back of my mind is machine intelligence.
> Or any one of several other big technological advances which would be game changing. But humanity isn't pursuing the right ones with the right intensity. Moreover
> the patent and civil court systems are used to suppress new technologies.


Rather than debate the specifics (technology), I see now more broadly that you want the same explosion of freedom that I want.

TPTB are managing humanity's innate desire for freedom, by offering media illusions (mind programming), addictions, etc..

How do we battle their system? I think the only way is an individual release from it. A socialistic battle serves their end (always has in numerous prior examples).


>
> I think the concept of demanding justice is a big problem as regards the retiring baby-boomers. They have expectations of being on the receiving end of a deal. They paid into social security and invested in 401K's and the stock market, bonds, etc. Specifically for their comfortable retirement.
> They are a powerful voting block. Now from their perspective anything that threatens their planned retirement is evil and unfair.


Agree very strongly for probably at least 50% of the population of the boomers. I don't have a firm grasp on the exact demographics. Seems that those who read someone like Jason Hommel are in the very small minority.


> I don't
> believe
> the
> world is wealthy enough to allow for all the baby boomers, who didn't have enough children, to go gently into that good night.


Agreed. The world could be wealthy enough in some sense, if gold were allowed to be money and the system would be allowed to anneal (billions of individual winners and losers), that there could be winners and prosperity for many people (not the spoiled ones as you allude to).

Instead the world is trying to force everyone to share the load of carrying the boomers, which has the potential of dragging everyone down, which is why I say it can only end in war.

It depends on how long the current power players in the system can hold gold (& silver) down, and keep the chaos from feeding into the money that people use every day or stores of value. So far, they are amazingly successful, considering how little investment it would take to throw the silver market into chaos. It is amazing how little people in the world know or care to try to stop this problem before it gets intolerable and headed for war. This gives the Bible more credibility for me. It explains how that the people will be fooled.


> In order to
> finance
> their retirement wealth from the world must continue to be sucked away. The baby boomers demand justice -- for them. But it is injustice for the rest of the world.


Agreed.


>
> I compare this to eskimo culture. When the old people become useless and would be a burden on the young ones, they say goodbye and go walk out on the ice and freeze to death. The modern philosophy of not wanting old people to die, wanting to equalize society to handicapped and crippled people, so that the benefits of natural health and
> intelligence
> and youth are erased -- is this justice? Burdening the strong for the sole purpose of keeping the weak around -- is this justice? Yet this is what soceity is teaching everyone. I don't think long term this is sustainable, at least if human labor is the source of the labor.


Well I think there is no problem with letting some people do that, as long as the monetary system does not allow them to charge the cost to others. Let each family decide their priorities and then (billions of independent actors) nature will anneal the balance. There will be a diversity, not absolute one way (eskimo) or other (european socialized health care).




>
> I want anarchy. I want freedom from any group, freedom from the majority.


Strongly ditto for me. But also pure anarchy would cause me some severe problems also. I am not ready for 100% anarchy, just some increasing diversity at a pace I can tolerate.


> It used to be that the 50 states were different.


Yes! I remember that. I was from New Orleans. I remember when Mardi Gras was not a tourist event, but a real cultural expression. Now it is just "show me your tits" monotony with no spontaneous dance/jazz
expression.


> Now with an oppressive
> and all encompassing federal government, choosing among the states is essentially irrelevant. The War On Drugs is everywhere. Perhaps if you're lucky you get to smoke marijuana without too much fear of getting harassed.


I have been told that the bankers are behind the drug production and trafficing, and then they use the War on Drugs to create premium prices for their products, and to maintain their monopoly on the drug trade (they can intercept the others who want to compete).


>
> Moreover the US government has now become world wide. As such most countries are a lot like the US in terms of personal freedom -- or lack thereof.


Philippines was recently named by the G20, as one of 3 countries in world not cooperating on bank non-secrecy. So there are still a few places that are not all the way there, but agreed the bankers (and their counter party caucasian socialist machine and zombie population) are gaining more and more control. It is called "globalization".


> If the federal government collapses in hyperinflation, you get 50 states each
> an independent microcosm. One of those 50 will be attractive to live in, in
> terms of low taxes and high personal freedom.


I think we will get some of this anarchy (chaos), but I think the 50+% of the masses will win and get a socialistic order and a dead nation, like Europe. They will win, because the billions of the world will continue to support them. This will be because the billions will not spontaneously start using silver as money. Jason explains how the bottom will not come until the govt/FED sells real estate:

http://silverstockreport.com/2009/housing.html

It may take a war and we may get a period of extreme chaos and
disintegration. It is going to be very interesting to watch how the TPTB plan to manage this transistion to new world order-- one that they still control.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty re: Future of the World

Post  dz20854 on Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:10 pm

> In the midst of all this, nagging in the back of my mind is machine intelligence.
> Or any one of several other big technological advances which would be game changing. But humanity isn't pursuing the right ones with the right intensity. Moreover
> the patent and civil court systems are used to suppress new technologies.
...
> If the federal government collapses in hyperinflation, you get 50 states each
> an independent microcosm. One of those 50 will be attractive to live in, in
> terms of low taxes and high personal freedom.
Dash?

Reminds me of some of the great discussions from when the JH forum was more active.

I'm not sure what it is, but there is something keeping people from comparing their role in nature with the way other forms and levels of life interact with nature. We think we're different or special. This blinds us from reality. No one can (for long) escape the influence of the world any more than a cell can escape the influence of the body. (Hermits, and cells in petri dishes, excepted.)

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 8 Empty One of the best articles on future of precious metals in this period

Post  Shelby on Mon Jul 06, 2009 4:55 am


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