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Inflation or Deflation?

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Pretcher says the big stock market and gold declines have begun

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 26, 2009 12:21 am

See my prior post on prior page also.

He is saying forcefully that they will drop fast now. He says silver did not confirm (< $21) Gold's run at a new peak, as well gold in non-dollar currencies did not confirm.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty PTB Next Move - Money Market Funds

Post  Guest on Sat Sep 26, 2009 1:46 am

Hi Shelby, Jim et al,

Rumored Source Of Reverse Repo Liquidity: Not Bank Reserves But Money Market Funds

"And the Fed finds a way to screw everyone over yet again." Yep! The expiry of the MM fund guarrantee on September 18 is an opportunity that is too good to miss for the banksters. Do you think the Fed/Treasury is unaware of the implications arising from their decision not to renew it?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rumored-source-reverse-repo-liquidity-not-bank-reserves-money-market-funds

My take on this is that they will steal this $1-$2trillion in two ways. By 1. scaring MM investors out of commercial paper into Treasuries and (guarranteed) bank deposits and/or 2. prompt the MM funds to liquidate commercial paper by bringing them "inside the tent" with the big Banks by offering them a return on the Fed's "secured" borrowings from them.

Think about the position of the MM funds. By playing along they can continue to offer investors a "safe" return and the appearance of liquidity (provided by the Fed). If the MM funds refuse to play they get killed in the "flight to safety" or a slow death from margin erosion.

What do the PTB get out of this?

1. The Fed engineers another credit crunch in the real economy to intimidate the Congress (think HR1207). Remember in the weeks prior to Paulson's financial blackmail of Congress the Fed drained $185 billion in cash out of the economy. (As reported by Gary North on the Mises Institute website when he advised his subscribers to sell gold and silver at the top. BTW This prompted a slanging match with Jason Hommel. With the benefit of hindsight Hommel was clearly on the wrong side of this argument.)

2. More assets are shaken loose in the real US economy as businesses find another source of funding (commercial paper) drying up.

3. This sets the stage for the next takedown of the Stockmarket to steal most of Americans remaining holdings in pensions and mutual funds.

4. They don't have to reveal the theft of bank deposits for a while longer. Even their greed will take a while to digest the MM funds.

5. T Bonds get supported for a while longer and the Asians and Middle Easterners are placated again.

6. In regard to the US$, the reduction in the rate of debt monetization takes some of the pressure off the dollar. So the pace of the debasement of the US$ and its fall against other currencies remains under their control. This also helps to placate the Asians and Middle Easterners.

Brilliant! Pure EVIL but Brilliant.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty The Bottom Line

Post  Guest on Sat Sep 26, 2009 2:03 am

Hi Shelby,

Thank you for your kind remarks in the earlier post. I think what you said below is absolutely correct:

"Or you continue to be as productive as you can be under the Lord, and you will be rewarded relative to your productivity level in terms of how many people it helps the most."

My overall strategy is to preserve capital eg. in gold, speculate in silver when I think I can succeed, continue to reduce my needs to the minimum, enhance my sustainability (food etc), work against the PTB or at least try to avoid assisting them through unconscious co-operation and look for an opportunity to deploy capital down the track to create real value at a family and community level.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty re: PTB next's move and the worry about carry trade driving dollar lower

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 26, 2009 8:02 am

I agree with your reasoning.

Derringer thinks the carry trade dooms the dollar:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1467-The-Horrible-Conundrum-Facing-The-Fed.html

But I think he is missing the point that the dollar masters are in control, because they control whether the entire global economy is having a liquidity crisis or not. So the PTB can force those carry trader borrowers to have liquidity crisis and thus the dollar will rise again. Japan's Yen did not have this power and Japan needed a lower Yen for exports. From an ignorant political sense and in the sense of what the PTB need next, we need a strong dollar (exports are never coming back any way).

In short, the dollar can't go down in a straight line, there will be massive reversals along the way. And the dollar can't go down too much too fast without the world economy imploding. Also realize the world is responding to this by adding more unproductive (misallocated) debt.

This is destructive whirlwind of deflation of the private sector in many cases, and inflation due to waste (increasing debt and it's misallocation, especially in developing world) and dilution of fiat value. The private sector will grow in some sectors, i.e. those that capture this increasing debt stimulus globally. The most private sector opportunities are probably in the developing world.

I think you want to be long in dollars right now, I am about 80% of my net worth in dollars since about the 78 level (I sold my silver just a little bit too early so I missed about 15-20% of the peak and about 5-10% of the dollar low). Go against what most of the world is doing right now, which is shorting dollars. However, I can not be sure if we seen the peak already in this cycle.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty The reason we can not make logical sense of this era

Post  Shelby on Sat Sep 26, 2009 10:49 am

MUST READ: God's Plan to Protect His People in the Coming Depression

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/health-f5/preparing-for-coming-crisis-t41-30.htm#1982

Also:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/precious-metals-f6/silver-as-an-investment-t33-180.htm#1981

Shelby wrote:...The Great Harlot system is futile. That is why I think the Bible tells us in so many ways to come out of man's system:

We can make long-term investments in hard money, and we can try to find and invest and work in the exponential growth sectors in this current macroeconomic paradigm...

But as warned in that first link, we should not be hoarding or trusting anything but God to protect and guide us.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Dilution is not inflation (Saville's semantic confusion)

Post  Shelby on Thu Oct 01, 2009 7:36 pm

Regarding my prior post in this thread, the calculation for whether to buy gold or invest in business for income, should perhaps be the gold basis relative opportunity cost:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/economics-f4/exponential-growth-t109.htm#1990

Saville explains correctly that the fiat system never has to stop diluting the value of our money:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/saville092909.html

However, Saville seems to imply that this means we can't have deflation (of what? deflation of production?). Either we have not properly defined the terminology, or Saville did not mention (in this article) that dilution of money causes mis-allocation of resources, which retards growth and even reaches the point that it causes deflation of economic production (as in China now), i.e. when the marginal utility of debt goes negative as it has:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Bell%20Curve%20Economics.html

The bottom line is that wealth is being transferred (via dilution), at the same time that global production may have peaked. My point is to do business in developing world (or in burgeoning markets in developed world, i.e. foreclosure counseling) because this transfer of wealth (via the dilution engine) will to some degree continue to sustain some sectors of the global economy, even aspects of global economy will continue to grow (remember small things grow faster, while mature things peak and decay).

So yes we will have deflation of many BIG things that were overdone by credit, and we have dilution of the average value of money (the small things everyone buys), while at same time having growth in smaller sectors and inflation in prices in some sectors.

Eventually this dilution/theft system (where the developing world are enslaved to provide for developed world, with the banksters parasiting off it all) will reach the point where the mis-allocation is such that the system can not function at all, and the world will break into chaos. At that point, gold goes to the moon and we have hyper-inflation of value of money (and deflation of global economy, a double whammy!). But Saville is correct, this won't happen in a straight line, even possibly may take years or even a decade.

Even during that coming double whammy crisis, some businesses could still thrive. The banksters preferred business of loaning to make war should do well. But I think communication (technology) will also do very well.

Here is a nice example:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1473-Is-It-Time-To-Recognize-Reality.html

...The Fed is literally the entire mortgage market. Yes, really. As Chris Martenson points out (correctly) we have issued roughly $685 billion in new mortgages through August, while The Fed has bought $722 billion of mortgage paper and GSE debt (I argue illegally, and have for months) with printed money. That is, they are the market - not a part of the market. But reality is much worse - there is no market when a central bank simply buys with printed money, intentionally overpaying. After all it's not their money, right? (On the contrary, it's yours they're spending - without your consent! Must be nice eh?)...

============
Looks like deflation is still alive:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2009/0930.html
Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 0930_c10Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 0930_c11
Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 0930_c12

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Currency swaps are used to export dollar inflation and keep dollar value from plummetting

Post  Shelby on Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:49 pm

See also the prior post above, which I made just about an hour ago.

See some peculiar evidence:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/insatiable-demand-us-debt-or-something-else/28559

Look the world doesn't want a dollar free-fall, because the world is dependent on exports.

So the Fed has been doing currency swaps, so the foreigners can buy our Treasury debt (which hides the fact that our Fed is doing Zimbabwe style buying it's own debt), then it gives the Fed foreign currency to defend the dollar with. The Fed buys dollars which then repatriates the foreign currency while holding the dollar up. Clever!

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty re: Currency swaps are used to export dollar inflation and keep dollar value from plummetting

Post  Shelby on Fri Oct 02, 2009 6:12 pm

Shelby wrote:See also the prior post above, which I made just about an hour ago.

See some peculiar evidence:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/insatiable-demand-us-debt-or-something-else/28559

Look the world doesn't want a dollar free-fall, because the world is dependent on exports.

So the Fed has been doing currency swaps, so the foreigners can buy our Treasury debt (which hides the fact that our Fed is doing Zimbabwe style buying it's own debt), then it gives the Fed foreign currency to defend the dollar with. The Fed buys dollars which then repatriates the foreign currency while holding the dollar up. Clever!

Somebody else has deduced what I wrote in prior 2 posts:

http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/deepcaster/2009/1002.html

And from a Deepcaster reader:

“Evans-Pritchard suggests that the Fed has been forced to stop wholesale money creation [out of thin air] because of pressure from China, which fears dollar devaluation on account of its huge dollar holdings. Why don’t I believe that the Fed has slowed down its ‘quantitative easing’?

It’s because the US government is still spending far in excess of revenues, and where does it get the money to make up the difference except from selling bonds?

And who believes that foreigners and domestic buyers continue to be so stupid that they are buying those bonds in the required quantity? Since the Treasury has abdicated from printing its own money [Lincoln’s and JFK’s greenbacks], the Fed has to create money [out of thin air] to buy the bonds.

I think the Fed is still doing it, only more secretly, thus giving rise to the probably-false rumor that M3 is shrinking, or at least is rising at a slower pace. I am confident that increasing tons of electronic US$s are in central bank and banker hands, even if Main Street, USA, is hurting for lack of credit.

The risk of a double-dip Depressions is very real. Nevertheless, the assumption that it will be accompanied by price deflation may be misplaced. A double-dip Depression in an INFLATIONARY price environment seems as likely.”

This Astute Deepcaster Reader has got it right.

Yes we will have deflation of production (GDP) due to mis-allocation, while getting inflation in many sectors of things due to the dilution of (increase in) quantity of fiat money.

Shelby
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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Off Topic (but very brief)

Post  Guest on Sat Oct 03, 2009 4:52 am

As my Granny used to say, "Many a true thing said in jest."

From Bob Chapman, International Forecaster:
"An interesting observation appeared in the Australian Shooter Magazine this week: If you consider that there has been an average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theater of operations during the past 22 months, and a total of 2112 deaths, that gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers.

The firearm death rate in Washington, DC is 80.6 per 100,000 for the same period. That means you are about 25 percent more likely to be shot and killed in the US capital, which has some of the strictest gun control laws in the US, than you are in Iraq."

Conclusion: "The US should pull out of Washington."

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty BOTTOM LINE: Deflation + Inflation = Distortion

Post  Shelby on Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:54 am

Listen to a very good debate of Inflation vs. Deflation with Mish Shedlock vs. Dan Amerman:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0919-3a.mp3 (listen especially to the 70:20 min mark! They both agree on inflation!)

Some of Dan's views are expressed in writing also:
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2009/1002.html

Harry Dent makes some good points also:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0926-3b.mp3

Google for "Mish" to read his blog.

There is a conclusion by Jim & John Puplava:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1003-3a.mp3 (listen to Peter Schiff at 18 min point!!!)
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1003-3b.mp3 (listen to Peter Schiff at 20 min point also)

ALSO YOU MUST LISTEN THIS FROM START, THE REPORTED P&L is wrong:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1003-3b.mp3 (also listen at 41:20 min mark explains what I write about below)

Dan Amerman made 2 crucial points:

1) Banks do not care what asset prices do, they care about their assets not imploding in mark-to-market deflation, and thus diluting the value of money is in their interest.

2) Fannie Mae may be the source of massive dilution of money, as they continue to subsidize housing. Remember also I had written recently in my blog that Chris Martenson had pointed out that Fed had bought all the mortgages that were sold in past year, so the Fed is monetizing and diluting the value of the dollar now.

I haven't listened yet to Jim & John's conclusions, but I have already figured out in my research that both the deflationalists and the inflationalists are correct and they are both wrong also. Let me explain.

The increase in government debt is distortionary because it takes capital (i.e. resources, such as labor, commodities, brainpower, time...capital does not mean money, money is the conduit to direct the flow of capital) away from the private sector and redirects it to wasteful activities. Distortionary means that on the whole given enough time to play out, production will be reduced relative to what it had been if the capital was left in the private sector. And if the marginal utility of debt is negative then distortion is deflationary to production (GDP), i.e. there are no more fools willing to work more hours and strive harder for more things debt can buy, or simply that any marginal increases in production due to debt are unwanted, i.e. more houses, big screen TVs, etc.. I would say that in western countries we have mostly negative marginal utility of debt and thus deflating production; whereas, in developing world they are taking on new debt that is actually adding some % of useful production and some % of waste and redundancy. Also keep in the mind the Fed is doing currency swaps as a way to prop up the dollar and export the devaluation of the dollar as inflation in the developing world. I explained the mechanism in my blog.

However, deflation (or retardation) of production does not tell us what will happen to prices, because we must look also at the demand for goods. If demand falls less (or increases more) than production deflates (or grows slower), then we will have inflation of prices. Mish is correct we need to look at supply of credit and it is exploding in the developing world. So that is why we have inflation in the prices of commodoties again. However, if the demand falls more (or increases less) than production deflates (or grows slower), then we will have deflation of prices, which is what we are seeing in other sectors, especially those that were already saturated with debt, i.e. western housing. So we will have both inflation and deflation of different assets and goods, while seeing a huge theft of illusionary net worth from the west to the bankers, using the developing countries as a lever to keep the system in a state of stealthy equilibirium between bouts of bubbles and busts. At some point this theft system is going to break and chaos will probably break out.

The banks are sitting on huge reserves of Tbills which the Fed converted from their junk derivatives and then bribed them to keep it on reserve (by paying interest on the reserves). What can happen later after all the derivatives have been passed from the banks balance sheets (shits!) to the public sector (Fed or Treasury), then the banks will at some time (Amero!) be allowed to go on a spending or loaning spree with all these reserves. The salient point is that the developing world can absorb huge amounts of debt stimulation without negative marginal utility, so what is happening is a transfer of capital from the savers in the fiat system to the large corporations and banks as capital is absorbed by this process in developing world.

So the inflationalists are correct also, the saver of fiat is doomed (but he may not even realize it because it is being done so stealthly with the big effect to come later). And the deflationalist is correct also, that a huge deflation in production is occurring in the developed countries.

What is the bottom line? Grab gold and silver regularly from income and keep investing FOR INCOME (not yoyo equities or commodities) especially in developing world to capture some of the inflationary transfer of capital. That is the safest strategy.

As for other strategies, such as buying long-term LEAP puts on Treasury debt, shorting the stock market, etc... These all suffer from being timing plays, and we are going to see tremendous volatility, and the end will be a crackup chaos that will likely result in capital controls. So you could end up losing money on the timing, and then losing money again if the govt confiscates your gains when they finally occur. If you need a near-term strategy, you might want to capture volatility as I explained here:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-30.htm#2002

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty My recent plan to foil the giants...

Post  Shelby on Fri Oct 09, 2009 11:53 pm

Tangentially, this week I irrefutably de-obfuscated the atheist mis-use of the faith called science:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=1271#comments (use Ctrl+F to find all instances of "Shelby")

First see a further summary of inflation vs. deflation, and understand that the core thing that is going on now is an increase in wasteful production, which will lead to a reduction of resources for essential production (also note I sold SLV e-silver at end of this week, after buying on Monday at $16.10 spot, i.e. $15.92 SLV):

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/precious-metals-f6/silver-as-an-investment-t33-195.htm#2021

As part of my internet cafe business plans in developing world, I am working on a new software for Windows that could enable to connect multiple monitors, keyboards, and mice to one CPU tower:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiseat_configuration

This is not just multi-monitor, because multiple users are able to use the multiple monitors independently and simultaneously with the extra mice and keyboards. The problem with the existing software mentioned in the above link (add also Ncomputing.com which won't work 3D games at all), is that they do not support multi-media (i.e. YouTube) and 3D games well. They tend to add bugs in those cases, and be unstable with new releases of graphics cards drivers. Although Ncomputing.com claims to be able to do multi-media, do not count on it really working well in practice. Also all those existing software at $200 per 2 users (except for ASTER which won't support multi-media and games at all), are not more cost effective than buying another CPU tower ($200) per monitor.

My new software will fix that. Also it will support the options of multiple users (keyboards and mice) sharing the same monitor (e.g. each get left or right half of a widescreen). Once the CPU tower has been divided between 4 monitors (users), then the $50 cost per user of the tower is small compared to the $100 cost per user of the monitor, so my planned software has the potential to bring the hardware cost down to $100 per user total. If I sell my software for a few dollars per copy and we assume computer prices continue to drop by 50% every 18 months for the same performance (Moore's Law), then sub-$100 per user computing becomes a reality. This means the rental cost drops in half for each of the 4 monitors sharing a CPU tower and drops by 1/4 (as an option for those wish to share a screen, asians love to do things in groups not individually nor privately) to these people in Philippines that earn $3 per day. Also the power usage can drop from 100 watts per user to 25 watts, which could have a tremendous effect on peak energy.

Think about this, less than 1 billion people are on computers, and Microsoft projects another billion to come on before 2015. If I lower the cost per user for general computing (not limited like those other software), then we could see a doubling of that to 2 billion more by 2015. This could not only make me rich beyond my wildest imagination, but it could radically alter the current direction of the world.

This is the sort of technological revolution that can change the world drastically, increasing useful production, and foiling the plans of the giants (PTB) to enslave the world.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Crash Course author interview

Post  Shelby on Sat Oct 17, 2009 5:42 am

I knew all of this, but I heard a few interesting points of view and some interesting pieces of data, it is bit long interview and Chris doesn't get to the point fast enough for me. Nevertheless I suggest listening to the first 42 mins:

http://www.anglofareast.com/download.php?file=downloads/Chris_Martenson_Interview_071009.mp3

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Hyperinflation tipping point reached

Post  Shelby on Tue Oct 20, 2009 5:57 am

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=253

...There have been 28 episodes of hyperinflation of national economies in the 20th century, with 20 occurring after 1980. Peter Bernholz (Professor Emeritus of Economics in the Center for Economics and Business (WWZ) at the University of Basel, Switzerland) has spent his career examining the intertwined worlds of politics and economics with special attention given to money.

In his most recent book, Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships, Bernholz analyzes the 12 largest episodes of hyperinflations – all of which were caused by financing huge public budget deficits through money creation. His conclusion: the tipping point for hyperinflation occurs when the government’s deficit exceeds 40% of its expenditures. Guess what? The U.S. will hit the 40% mark in 2009...


Consumer and business credit are not coming back (yet):

http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=246

Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 12551110Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 12551111

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty More deleveraging to come before Hyperinflation hits

Post  Shelby on Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:07 pm

See also the prior post in this thread.

http://financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2009/1023.html

...so based on the general monetarist schedule:

* Some of the effect on stocks and bonds should already have been felt.
* The peak effect on economic activity should come between the middle of 2010 and the middle of 2011.
* The peak effect on consumer price inflation should come between the middle of 2011 and the end of 2012.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty US Municipal Bond Market

Post  Guest on Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:38 am

Hi Shelby et al,

I am reading the report linked to the piece below at ZeroHedge. I think it is worth a read. One of the major underlying themes of the report is, to me, most of the worst crap is sitting in the portfolios of retail and non-professional investors. The report claims around US$3 trivillions* in state, municipal, College etc bonds are on issue.

(I have adopted the convention "trivillions" to acknowledge that a trillion is now a small amount of money. Likewise I think we need to evolve to "minillions" and "banallions" in order to keep modern bankster finance in perspective.)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/collapse-muni-bond-market

On a serious note, how does the following scenario fit with your thinking?

1. By collapsing the Muni Bond market the PTB achieve the following:

1.1 Bankrupt the levels below the Federal level.

1.2 We find out that certain favoured institutions ie. Wall Street banks (and friends), that advised the Muni Bond issuers, hold first ranking paper. The public holds the worst crap.

1.3 The pension entitlements etc of all of the non-Federal employees evaporate along with their employment contracts (to be re-set at a much lower level).

1.4 This unlocks a smorgasbord of cheap, highly strategic assets.

1.5 It helps to crash the stock markets again as it puts the spotlight on corporate revenues/profits again.

1.6 It drives some money back into the "safety" of Federal debt markets (for a while).

1.7 Continues to pressure the USD in order to keep the Wall Street carry traders happy.

BTW I am developing a theory that the plan for the "rehabilitation" of the US economy, after the PTB have all of the wealth and near total control, is to be based on agriculture. More on this later.

Cheers!

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Trivillions of Quadillars and No Private Ownership (=Socialism)

Post  Shelby on Thu Oct 29, 2009 7:08 pm

Btw, I replied to your post in "Changing World Order" thread, Amazing Maze of 'Maes, ending with no Maize.

angophera wrote:...most of the worst crap is sitting in the portfolios of retail and non-professional investors. The report claims around US$3 trivillions...

(I have adopted the convention "trivillions" to acknowledge that a trillion is now a small amount of money. Likewise I think we need to evolve to "minillions" and "banallions" in order to keep modern bankster finance in perspective.)

Haha, those are great! I will adopt those terms and attribute to you. I will use them in my next financial sense essay and link to here.

So is the basic unit of exchange now the quadillar?

If the money system is a rubberband, then why not the vocabulary of the money system. In fact, why don't we just start using a random word generator when speaking of the value of things? That is in real terms the chaotic outcome where we are headed!

angophera wrote:...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/collapse-muni-bond-market

On a serious note, how does the following scenario fit with your thinking?

1. By collapsing the Muni Bond market the PTB achieve the following:

1.1 Bankrupt the levels below the Federal level.

Yup.

angophera wrote:...1.2 We find out that certain favoured institutions ie. Wall Street banks (and friends), that advised the Muni Bond issuers, hold first ranking paper. The public holds the worst crap...

Yup.

angophera wrote:...1.3 The pension entitlements etc of all of the non-Federal employees evaporate along with their employment contracts (to be re-set at a much lower level)...

The nominal payouts won't evaporate, but as seen with recent freeze in Social Security COLA (cost of living adjustment)-- the value will evaporate.

angophera wrote:...1.4 This unlocks a smorgasbord of cheap, highly strategic assets...

Gold! I can't remember where I read it in past few weeks, but apparently people are dumping it left and right now to raise cash. Said the dumping of 14K is nearly done (that lower class demographic is sold out) and now the 24K jewelry (from the upper middle class) is coming to market. Later comes silver, when silver rises to $100+ per ounce and the westerners are sufficiently impoverished that $100 is worth it (read the Silver Story by Shelby Moore was widely syndicated across the web in 2008).

angophera wrote:...1.5 It helps to crash the stock markets again as it puts the spotlight on corporate revenues/profits again.

1.6 It drives some money back into the "safety" of Federal debt markets (for a while).

1.7 Continues to pressure the USD in order to keep the Wall Street carry traders happy...

This is the "slow burn" model that Catherine Austin Fitts describes and ascribes to.

angophera wrote:...BTW I am developing a theory that the plan for the "rehabilitation" of the US economy, after the PTB have all of the wealth and near total control, is to be based on agriculture. More on this later.

Cheers!

I was published about land recently:

He Who Owns The Right Of Way... by Shelby Moore III

Shelby wrote:...The land of the States may be vast, but I suppose we are approaching much greater than 50% to be owned by the federal government, central bank, corporations, and by the wealthiest. Americans will likely soon wake up to see that they are trespassing and enslaved in the vast land they thought was impervious to foreign invasion...

Yup, with Monsanto seeds every where (an inbred into neighboring private farms) so no one can't plant anything without violating a patent. Actually controlling the food is how they plan to control the world ever tightly/strictly on local level (they realize oil is not an intrusive enough control vehicle), I think someone wrote an article on that recently, maybe it was at Endal's website, or maybe it was some where in Fitts' site or interviews.

If people can grow their own food, they don't need the banksters as gods. Oil makes commercial scale farming dependent, but it can't stop the little guys from giving the banksters the middle finger. You can do effectively farming without oil, in fact some argue even more efficiently at medium scale. There are posts about that in this forum.

There was a story about the Rothschilds are heavily investing in agriculture in India, they plan to concentrate food production by undercutting the prices in other countries for vegetables. Maybe you can Google it. I think it was from 2008.

I want to again remind everyone the model from Belgium and countries very close to the center of Rothschild's power, and that is everything is taxed and regulated. In Belgium, your chicken lays an egg, you need a sticker and a tax code and an inspection. If you are found during the day not at your job, you get reported for potentially trying to find work where you do not have a permit to work. Your work permit only allows you to work where you work. The govt workers to monitor this outnumber the actual workers in private industry. Everything is designed to waste 99% of productivity and feed the 1% up to the banksters with tight control. Everybody prays and works for the banksters and accepts their 1%. Most people are on drugs (in Netherlands the govt even hands them out for free).

Actually most people don't realize that in USA if you get addicted to the opiates (Heroin, Cocaine, Methadone, Crack, Pain Killers, etc), then if you can't afford private care, or if you use health insurance, then the system is basically they put you on methadone, and they gradually increase it. You become a permenant opiate addict and it is almost impossible to detox from methadone because it has a half-life about 36 hours, so unlike herion detox which takes 3 - 5 days of utter hell, the methadone detox takes 14 days and is nearly impossible. You become a permanent cash cow for the medical system, drug companies, and the government who is paying these out via their social health welfare.

This is already happening on large scale in USA. We have the highest rate of incarceration in the world, and we have probably 20 - 30% of the population is hardcore opiate addicts, you just don't know it, because if someone gets their daily dose of methadone or other long-acting opiate, then they can function in a job. But if you wonder why people act strange, this can be one.

Read Endhal's article linked above about the real reason the banksters have us in middle east. DRUGS!

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Long Wave Cycle

Post  Shelby on Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:20 am

In short, a Hyperinflationary, Greater Depression with gold ownership punishable by death. More on that: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wieg_cor/roger_oct302009.html

Graphical depiction of what we had read about.

http://www.pro-investory.cz/forum/attachments/att56/
Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Long_w10

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Interest swaps wags the Bonds

Post  Shelby on Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:28 pm

Wallstreet controls the long-term interest rates with interest rate swaps (it is not a free market!):

http://www.modavox.com/voiceamerica/vepisode.aspx?aid=42011 (listen from 26 min)

This is Ron Kirby, and I had posted his financialsense.com article on this in past.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty We built houses instead of lifting up developing world...

Post  Shelby on Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:59 am

I accidentally deleted this post! No way to recover it. It was a link to Howard Katz's blog where he made point that we artificially suppressed the prices of food, built houses worldwide instead, and now we would pay for it.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Pretcher's illusion

Post  Shelby on Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:48 am

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/10/26/Is-Gold-The-Bargain-Of-the-Decade-This-Chart-Cuts-To-the-Chase.aspx?code=cg
Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Goldvs10Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Sgs-cp10

Pretcher's mistake is that he used the official CPI, which has been a lie since at least the early 1980s:

The difference can be calculated, and is exactly 8/3 = 2.67. So actually the 1913 dollar is only worth $0.04 / 2.67 = $0.015 (1.5 cents), or lost 98.5% of it's value. So thus gold should be $1402.

Additionally the prices of items reflects the confidence in the dollar. If that confidence stampedes away because people realize the dollar is bankrupt, then prices hyperinflate and price of gold does too.

Pretcher's thesis is dependent on a true deflation, but we have an inflationary depression, not a "too much savings" depression:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/economics-f4/what-is-money-t44-15.htm#2216

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty ALERT: market crash may be imminent

Post  Shelby on Tue Nov 24, 2009 8:44 pm

That is $0.3 trillion per week moving into negative yields (zero - inflation). So that is $1.2 trillion per month that is running to safety and expecting another liquidity crisis:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-75.htm#2365 <<--- must read

So you really think Christmas sales are going to be good news?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1657-Whos-Lying-About-Personal-Spending.html

Here are your possibilities:

* The BEA is lying....claim...+1.2%.

* Business that remit sales tax are lying. The overall sales tax collections in the 3rd quarter were down 8.2%...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1660-The-FDIC-Is-Broke.html

Off the wire this morning:

FDIC Deposit fund had negative $8.2B balance in Q3

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Deflation of wages

Post  Shelby on Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:52 pm

Whether we have deflation or inflation, depends on which currency you measure prices against.


Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Wages10

YearSalary=GoldWallstreet=Gold
1985$19,000060 oz$013,000041 oz
1993$26,000072 oz$039,000108 oz
2001$36,000133 oz$074,000273 oz
2008$45,000052 oz$112,000128 oz

With gold at $1200, the salaries are roughly 1/3 of what they were in 2001, as measured in gold.

This means the developing world has been repriced up by that amount relative to the developing world in terms of purchasing power parity.

If you are running a business in the developed world, and you have not more than doubled your AFTER-TAX salaries and profit since 2001, then your business is shrinking and your employees are getting poorer.

The overpriced things (those economies with a lot of credit) are deflating relative to gold (real money), and the other things (commodities) are roughly ahead of gold (inflating) by the amount of real growth in the under-priced economies.

So it is clear that the way to outpace gold is to invest in the under-priced economies, unless you think that the under-priced economies and free market will be delayed by some force.

=======
ADD: our after tax wages are much worse than in 1930s:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case37.1.html


Last edited by Shelby on Sat Nov 28, 2009 11:06 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Money

Post  Shelby on Thu Nov 26, 2009 10:20 pm

Lack of understanding starts with being obsessed about money.

Wages in USA priced in gold have declined by 2/3 since 2001.

What is really happening is a rebalancing of the value of the world.

Burying money in a hole enables someone else to better redistribute your capital to do the most good for the most in need who are the most productive.

If the world ever consumes 0.6oz silver per capita, as it does in the developed world, that would be 4 Billion oz per year consumed.

But anyone investing in small business in developing world right now, is seeing 100% returns on capital per year, so clearly those putting their money in precious metals are falling behind, unless the govts of the world totally destroy the financial system of the developing world (which I think is unlikely, because govts would be overthrown worldwide).

In short, it pays to not think so much about money, and think about doing good.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty re: ALERT: market crash may be imminent

Post  Shelby on Sun Nov 29, 2009 12:42 am

Shelby wrote:That is $0.3 trillion per week moving into negative yields (zero - inflation). So that is $1.2 trillion per month that is running to safety and expecting another liquidity crisis:

https://goldwetrust.forumotion.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-75.htm#2365 <<--- must read...

  1. Haven't researched it, but heard that Dubai had a crisis.
  2. Someone pointed out that we are near another turning point.
  3. Oil breaking down?
    Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Oil10


I am expecting a pullback, then a run higher in Spring, before the danger of another full scale liquidity crunch.

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Mutual destruction assured

Post  Shelby on Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:49 am

No one wants to stop the addiction which is driving imbalances to extremes:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/No-winners-if-yuan-rises-says-rb-3068261701.html?x=0&.v=1

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Inflation or Deflation? - Page 12 Empty Re: Inflation or Deflation?

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